Blue Jays' Bo Bichette's earning power heading into free agency
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Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette's quest for top-tier status in the MLB free agent rankings is a narrative filled with determination, skill, and a flair for the dramatic. As a player who combines athleticism with a deep understanding of the game, Bichette has quickly become one of the most exciting players to watch.
His journey is not just about personal accolades but about pushing the boundaries of what is possible on the baseball field.
Bichette's ambition to join the ranks of the elite is a compelling subplot in the free agent saga, adding depth and intrigue to the offseason discussions.
From 2019 through 2023, his production was quite consistent. He splashed onto the scene with a 143 wRC+ in 46 games in his debut season but then his wRC+ finished in the 120 to 130 range in each of the next four seasons.
His home run total in the three full seasons from 2021 to 2023 fell between 20 and 29. His walk rate was on the low side in each of those campaigns, falling between 4.5% and 5.9%, but he also struck out less than average and ran batting averages near .300.
The defensive reviews have been mixed. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -11 for his whole career, though a big chunk of that is a -16 in 2022 alone, which looks like a clear outlier. Apart from that, he's generally been near average, give or take a few runs on either side.
Outs Above Average, however, doesn't like his glovework at all. Bichette has -22 OAA for his career and has been below average in almost every season. The only campaigns in which he's finished with a positive OAA were the shortened 2020 season and his injury-marred 2024 campaign.
Still, the bat was enough to produce plenty of value. FanGraphs had him between 3.9 and 4.9 wins above replacement in each season from 2021 to 2023. Baseball Reference pegged him between 3.7 and 5.9.
Things went off the rails last year. Bichette seemingly battled leg injuries all year, twice going on the IL due to right calf strains.
He got into just 81 games, hit only four home runs and produced an ugly .225/.277/.322 batting line, 71 wRC+.
Turning to 2025, Bichette seems to have bounced back to his old self. Through 211 plate appearances, he has a .292/.341/.431 and 121 wRC+. That's despite a slow start.
Through the end of April, he still hadn't hit a home run, leading to a decent but powerless .295/.328/.364 line and 97 wRC+.
Since the calendar has flipped to May, he has finally gone over the fence four times, helping him hit .288/.365/.561 for a wRC+ of 163 this month.
Time will tell where Bichette ultimately puts himself on this earning spectrum, but it appears to be quite wide. A $200MM contract seems somewhat plausible, depending on his performance over the four-plus months, which will make him a fascinating player to track.
A qualifying offer would be something of a footnote when talking about a $200MM deal but would certainly become noteworthy if Bichette finds himself on the other end.
The QO was $21.05MM in the most recent offseason and will surely go up for the coming winter, after a number of recent mega deals. The QO is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 top-paid players.
Each of Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Corbin Burnes earned AAVs of $35MM or higher recently. Though there are some deferrals in those deals, the QO value is sure to rise.
Bichette would only be eligible to receive a QO if he sticks with the Jays until the end of the season. Players traded midseason are not eligible to receive one.
If the Jays fall out of the race and trade Bichette at the deadline, the QO won't be a factor for him - yet another detail that could sway a volatile free agent case with many factors at play.
SOURCE: MLBTR
| POLL | ||
MAI 19 | 138 ANSWERS Blue Jays' Bo Bichette's earning power heading into free agency Do you think the Blue Jays will extend Bo Bichette or let him pursue free agency? | ||
| Yes Extension | 80 | 58 % |
| No Free agency | 35 | 25.4 % |
| Too early to tell | 23 | 16.7 % |
| List of polls | ||
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