Blue Jays' Dylan Cease deal: Ramifications, impact on starting pitching market

When the Blue Jays signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year $210 million contract contract so early in the offseason it caught everyone by surprise.

It's rare to see the top free agents, especially those represented by Scott Boras to sign huge nine-figure deals in November.

These type of deals don't usually manifest till after the winter meetings, so when the Blue Jays made a big splash by signing Cease this quickly, they set the market for the rest of the top free agent starting pitchers available.

The top four starters left are Ranger Suarez, Michael King, Framber Valdez and Tatsuya Imai.

Suarez and Imai are both represented by Boras, who clearly already has a feel for what the starting pitching market looks like after negotiating the Cease deal.

Now that the Blue Jays have Cease in their rotation, and with the Red Sox recent trade for Sonny Gray, you can bet the rest of the AL East has taken notice.

I expect the Orioles, Rays and Yankees will be next to improve their pitching before more free agents come off the board.

Since Cease declined his qualifying offer from the Padres, the Blue Jays have forfeited their second-round and fifth-round picks in the 2026 draft.

Additionally, the Jays have lost $1 million in International Free Agent Signing Bonus pool money.

If the Blue Jays decide to improve the back end of their bullpen with an elite closer like Edwin Diaz (another player with a declined qualifying offer attached) they'll also lose their third-round pick since Diaz also declined his qualifying offer.

Another player the Blue Jays have been linked to is Kyle Tucker who also declined his qualifying offer and would come with the same ramifications.

This makes bringing Bo Bichette back much more attractive, because it comes without having to compensate another team.

Forfeiting draft picks is really the only downside to signing Cease. There's a good argument that Cease, 29, was the best free agent starter on the market.

He is incredibly durable, making 32 or 33 starts in his past five seasons. Don't let his 4.55 ERA fool you, he's a great pitcher who's fastball averaged 97.1 mph, allowing him to strike out 29.8% of the batters he faced, while having a slightly elevated 9.8 BB%.

Along with allowing 21 home runs (1.13 HR/9), Cease posted a 3.56 FIP.

With a Blue Jays' gold glove caliber defence behind the 29-year-old, Toronto has their new ace.