Blue Jays need divine intervention to overtake the Yankees in the AL East

Although that's a tall task, it's on the table, which is a pleasant surprise for the Blue Jays more than halfway through the season.

Toronto came into 2025 perceived as a wild-card threat at best, and although the AL East didn't project to have one dominant squad, no one was picking the Blue Jays to mount a challenge.

The Blue Jays may be just three games back of the Yankees, but the 117-run gap between the two teams' run differential shows there's probably more of a difference than raw records suggest.

FanGraphs' projections have the Yankees finishing seven games ahead of New York, and while they are bullish on Toronto's playoff odds (63.4 per cent), a division title is seen as a long shot (10.4 per cent).

Those numbers don't look encouraging for Toronto, but the competitive situation is shifting.

Just over a month ago, on May 27, the Yankees' odds to win the AL East peaked at 91.7 percent while Toronto sat at just 2.8 percent.

Since then, the Blue Jays have made gains, going 19-11 while New York has posted a 15-15 record and seen its divisional odds drop 23.5 percent

It's still best to think of any challenge for the division crown as a relatively remote possibility for the Blue Jays, but half the season has taken the notion from borderline ludicrous to plausible.

The Blue Jays have 10 games remaining against New York in 2025, and winning at the very least the majority will be critical to passing the Yankees in the standings.

A victory in the series would require Toronto to hit left-handers well. The Yankees rotation is led by two lefties: Carlos Rodon and Max Fried.

The Blue Jays will need strong efforts from players like Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider, whose offence is at its best against left-handers.

With Juan Soto joining the New York Mets, the Yankees are more Judge-dependent this season than in 2024.

Aaron Judge has three times the fWAR of any other Yankees position player and almost twice as many home runs.

A small shred of hope for the Blue Jays is that the outfielder has struggled against splitters this season (-3 run value) and Toronto has five pitchers on its staff that feature that pitch (Kevin Gausman, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Sandlin, Yariel Rodriguez, and Chris Bassitt).

Better yet take a page out of Ron Washington's manual and give Judge a free pass every time he comes to the plate with men on.

The Blue Jays can ill-afford to lose one of its top-three starters, or top-of-the-order producers like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Even nagging injuries that diminish performance could set back George Springer's renaissance or Alejandro Kirk's bounce back season.

That said, when you're talking about situations where a team needs things to break right to bring about an unlikely outcome, like the Blue Jays emerging as a threat to win the AL East, health is a critical factor.

Source: Sportsnet
How could Blue Jays overtake Yankees in AL East race?