Can the Toronto Blue Jays hold off the New York Yankees in the second half?

Toronto has played at a .634 clip since May 1, going 40-23 in that span. The Jays, who have won 12 of their past 15 games, trail only the Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros for the top spot in the American League.

So how have the Blue Jays made this leap in '25 after what appeared to be a closing window? And can they keep it going in the season's second half?

One of the biggest contributing factors to Toronto's success this season has been taking advantage of a division that has fallen back to Earth.

Coming into the season, the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles were supposed to be the squads leading the division. But it hasn't worked out that way.

The Red Sox haven't performed up to expectations after a big offseason and have instead had a season of turmoil, culminating in the trade of superstar Rafael Devers.

The Orioles have been baseball's biggest disappointment, leading to the firing of manager Brandon Hyde and a looming selloff at the trade deadline.

And while the Yankees have been about what we expected them to be, it hasn't been smooth sailing recently, as they've gone 16-19 since June 1, including a four-game sweep by Toronto that gave the Blue Jays sole possession of first place.

Now the Jays can look forward to the All-Star break with the rest of the division chasing them. Entering play Thursday, the Yankees and Rays sit 2.5 and 4 games back of the Blue Jays, respectively.

Another major catalyst for Toronto's success has been the resurgence of George Springer as an offensive force.

The Blue Jays' star is having his best year since he signed with Toronto before the 2021 season and is one of this year's more egregious All-Star snubs.

Springer, 35, is slashing .280/.375/.509 with 16 homers, which puts him on pace for his best season since 2019, his final season with the Astros.

And the former World Series champion has taken things to another level in July, hitting .412 with five home runs and a 1.369 OPS.

Springer's impressive first half has taken some of the pressure off Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette, and just as importantly, he has added length to a lineup that has had a few young hitters emerge, including outfielder Nathan Lukes and third baseman Addison Barger.

Now that Toronto has gotten itself to the top of the division, the question is whether it can hold on to its lead down the stretch.

Offensively, there's reason to think the Blue Jays could get even better in the second half, as Guerrero hasn't yet had a signature hot stretch in which he carries the team for a few weeks all by himself.

Toronto should also hope for a better second half from free-agent acquisition Anthony Santander, who was having an abysmal first half to 2025 prior to going down with a shoulder injury. He's expected back around the trade deadline at the end of July.

What will ultimately determine the Blue Jays' fate this season is their starting pitching.

Toronto will need more from future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer after he missed most of the first half.

And with the combination of established veterans including Kevin Gausman, José Berrios and Chris Bassitt, they have starters capable of forming a solid postseason rotation.

But they'll need injury luck and consistent production to make that happen.

Reinforcements for the stretch run also shouldn't be ruled out. Because the Blue Jays have played their way into being legitimate contenders and AL East division leaders, they should be aggressive in what is a weaker American League this season.

Look for Toronto to throw its hat into the ring, along with many other postseason contenders, to acquire starting pitching at the trade deadline, even given the arms the Jays already have.

At the midpoint of the MLB season, the Blue Jays are red-hot, and they've put the AL East and the rest of the American League on notice that they're here to stay.