MLB Insider Jeff Passan makes bold prediction about Shane Bieber's future with the Toronto Blue Jays

He hadn't pitched in the majors for a year and a half and was coming back from Tommy John surgery. Soon, it'll be Bieber's turn for a big decision.

With a $16 million player option for 2026, the Jays hoped they were getting a steal from the Cleveland Guardians by nabbing a former Cy Young winner, despite giving up their No. 5 ranked prospect to get him.

However, after coming out and proving he was pretty much back to his old form in his first few starts for Toronto, the big question now is, will he be picking up his $16 million option?

Or will he decline it and head into free agency for a much bigger payday?

MLB insider Jeff Passan thinks he has the answer:

As Passan states, that $4 million buyout makes this a $12 million decision for Bieber. A fair chunk of change, yes.

But nothing compared to what the 30-year-old could likely rake in as an ace in free agency.

Think Max Fried (eight years, $218 million with the NY Yankees last year, also at age 30), or Corbin Burnes (six years, $210 million with the Arizona Diamondbacks, also signed at the age of 30).

All Bieber has done is come out and throw six innings of two-hit, one-run ball in his first MLB start since April of 2024, then follow that up with 5.1 innings of two-run ball in his second start.

He encountered one very rough inning in Start #3 for the Blue Jays on Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds, giving up 5 hits and 5 runs in the second inning.

But he recovered from that to throw four more hitless, shutout innings. He left the game after six, enough for his second win.

The 2020 Cy Young winner and two-time All-Star is looking very much like the ace he used to be.

If he continues to pitch like this through the rest of the season and into the playoffs, he could be earning himself one of those aforementioned handsome paydays in free agency.