The Blue Jays offseason hasn't been as bad as everyone thinks; in fact, it's been the opposite
Photo credit: Mikayla Grimes
The Toronto Blue Jays have had a quiet, but impactful offseason.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette still haven't been signed to long-term extensions, and the Blue Jays have only made one trade, that of Spencer Horwitz and Nick Mitchell for Andres Gimenez and Nick Sandlin. .
It is that trade however, that has improved the Jays fortunes.
The Blue Jays fWAR, which is a stat compiled by FanGraphs in relation to their steamer projections, is +3.5 for the offseason so far. That total is third highest in the majors and tops in the AL East. (It should be noted that a Vlad signing wouldn't change that number as it only deals with free agencies and trades. Additions and subtractions).
While this may surprise the bulk of Blue Jays fans, statistically its actually quite easy to figure out.
Gimenez, the big addition so far, had a WAR of 4.0 last season. Garcia 's was 0.5. Josh Walker's WAR was 0 and Nick Sandlin's was -0.1. That's a total of 4.5.
The losses so far. Spencer Horwitz had a 1.2 WAR during the 2024 season. Genesis Cabreras was -0.1 and Jordan Romano's was -0.3.
Add an subtract those all up and you're left with 3.6, right around where FanGraphsplaced them.
Now, obviously an additional 3-4 wins won't get the Blue Jays above 500 but a strong comeback from Bichette could add another four or five wins. If Daulton Varsho is able to find some power, that could be a further one or two wins. That's anywhere from 8-11 extra wins, which puts the Jays somewhere between 82-85. While that still might fall short, another big bat or ace pitcher puts them over the hump.
The Blue Jays might just be better than people think in 2025.
| POLL | ||
DECEMBRE 27 | 426 ANSWERS The Blue Jays offseason hasn't been as bad as everyone thinks; in fact, it's been the opposite Do you agree with the projections? | ||
| Yes | 70 | 16.4 % |
| No | 356 | 83.6 % |
| List of polls | ||
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