A decade of past trade deadline deals will indicate Atkins upcoming moves

Let's instead focus on the Blue Jays' work at the trade deadline under Atkins, specifically in years the Blue Jays were buyers.

Of the nine summers Atkins has been the team's GM, the Blue Jays sold four times. That leaves five times the Blue Jays have been buyers under Atkins: 2016 and 2020-23. Using those years as a starting point, let's look for patterns that might shed light on what's ahead this summer:

Each of the five times the Blue Jays have been buyers, they've completed at least three trades.

The busiest deadline Atkins has had to date was his first, back in 2016, when August waiver trades were still permitted. That summer, the Blue Jays acquired seven players and two prospects in a series of seven trades.

Then, from 2020-23, the Blue Jays bought every year, acquiring at least three players every time.

As buyers under Atkins, the Blue Jays have acquired at least two pitchers at every single deadline. In fact, every year but 2023, the Blue Jays acquired at least three pitchers at the deadline.

On the position player side, the Blue Jays haven't added as much volume, but they have added a bench bat every single year they've been buyers, from Melvin Upton to Jonathan Villar to Corey Dickerson to Whit Merrifield to Paul DeJong.

With Atkins as GM, the Blue Jays have consistently used the deadline to acquire players with additional years of control:

2016: Francisco Liriano

2020: Ross Stripling

2021: Adam Cimber, Trevor Richards, Jose Berrios

2022: Whit Merrifield

2023: Genesis Cabrera

In a couple instances, those additional years proved valuable because the Blue Jays flipped Liriano for Teoscar Hernandez in a 2017 trade that ranks among their best in recent memory, and they extended Berrios into a core piece of their team after the trade with Minnesota.

Of the 29 prospects the Blue Jays have traded away at the deadline, none have come back to haunt the Blue Jays.

In fact, it's hard to find even one player whose absence has hurt the Blue Jays much at all. Rowdy Tellez, Ryan Noda, Riley Adams and Simeon Woods Richardson have all played in the majors, and Tellez has a 35-homer season to his name, but the Blue Jays got big-league talent in return and don't regret those deals.

Not counting the 2016 acquisition of Dioner Navarro, an August trade that would no longer be permitted under the current rules, the Blue Jays have made 21 trades as summer buyers under Atkins.

Of those 21 deals, 17 occurred within a week of the trade deadline, after sellers have a clearer picture of their options.

Even so, the last decade still offers hints at what's ahead. Based on the data in front of us, we can safely say the Blue Jays tend to make three or more trades when they're buyers, they tend to add multiple pitchers and one bat, ideally with additional years of control, and the action tends to happen in the few days leading up to the deadline.

Source: Sportsnet
Using past trade deadlines to anticipate Blue Jays' next moves