Deferrals expected to reduce present value AAV of largest free agent contract in Blue Jays history
Photo credit: Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images
The Toronto Blue Jays made a major splash at the top of the rotation by signing free agent Dylan Cease on a seven-year contract.
It's reportedly a $210MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client, though it includes deferred money that'll drop the average annual value for luxury tax purposes to roughly $26MM. That puts the net present value closer to $182MM.
The deferrals are expected to reduce the present value AAV of the deal to around 26 million per year, per source. Still the largest pitching contract in Blue Jays history
Even after adjusting for deferrals, it's the largest free agent signing in franchise history.
Though the Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500MM extension earlier this year, they'd never gone beyond George Springer's six-year, $150MM deal on the open market.
Cease's current numbers aren't amazing, it's what's under the hood that the Blue Jays like
It's a deal that tells us a lot about the modern game and, more importantly, about the state of the Blue Jays.
Cease had a 4.55 ERA in 2025. That's not very good.
He had a 94 league- and ballpark-adjusted ERA+, or 6% below league average. That's not very good, either.
He walked almost 10% of batters he faced, the third-worst rate among qualified starters.
Cease, 30 next month, entered free agency as a test case of how much modern front offices care about earned run average.
In two of the past three seasons, his ERA has jumped to the mid-4.00s, including a 4.55 mark in 2025.
However, in just about every other respect, he has been great. He has been incredibly durable.
His control isn't amazing but he has racked up strikeouts. He has kept his fastball velocity in the upper 90s, while also featuring a slider, knuckle curve and changeup.
Though Cease debuted back in 2019, he has actually never been on the major league injured list, apart from a very brief stint on the COVID list in 2021.
He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season and has taken the ball at least 32 times in each full season since. In total, he's made 174 starts since the start of 2020, which leads all major league pitchers.
He generally doesn't pitch deep into games, however, so he's ninth in that span in terms of innings.
On top of the quantity, the quality has been strong. For that same 2020-25 span, he posted a 3.88 ERA.
His 9.9% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he punched out 28.9% of batters faced with a 14.4% swinging strike rate.
Blue Jays take a draft and financial hit due to qualifying offer attached to Cease
Cease rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Jays are hit with the highest penalty to sign a qualified free agent because they paid the competitive balance tax this year.
They'll surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft plus $1MM from their international bonus pool in 2027.
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