Should the Toronto Blue Jays roll the dice on free agent Max Scherzer again?
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Max Scherzer had a rough start to his Toronto Blue Jays tenure, but finished strong in game 7 of the World Series.
Between a lingering thumb injury and poor performance, including a 5.19 ERA and 4.99 FIP Scherzer's 2025 season was forgettable.
But when the ALCS rolled around, the Blue Jays needed a fourth starter. After being left off the roster for the ALDS, «Mad Max» returned to the limelight with his patented fury.
Scherzer allowed a total of six runs in three postseason starts. At one point, he threw his fastest pitch in two years, a 96.5 mph four-seamer, and his average fastball velocity (94.6 mph) was up a full tick from the regular season.
This is why the Blue Jays signed Max Scherzer. Making his Blue Jays post-season debut, a fired-up Scherzer pitched five innings in ALCS G4, allowing one run on three hits while striking out four and hitting 96.5 m.p.h. on the radar gun - his fastest pitch in two years.
His slider and curveball both generated swing-and-miss at high rates. He wasn't overpowering, but he showed that he can still pitch.
At this point in his career, Scherzer is reliant on plus command. He's in the strike zone more than most pitchers, with a 52.9% zone rate, even though his stuff is not what it used to be; Stuff+ grades every pitch but his slider as below average.
He's never missed fewer bats, with a 23.6% whiff rate down a full eight percentage points from his career average.
To succeed like this, you have to hit your spots. Mistakes will be punished: Scherzer's barrel rate against was in the second percentile last season.
But he knows where he wants his pitches, with a heavy diet of fastballs up and sliders low and away. Last season, Scherzer was in the shadow zone (defined by Statcast as the area around the edges of the strike zone) on 45.5% of his total pitches.
That was one of the highest rates among starting pitchers. No one located their slider in the shadow zone more than Scherzer, who did so 48.3% of the time.
«You've got to find the zone with all your pitches,» Scherzer told himself ahead of his ALCS Game 4 start.
Scherzer's durability over 162 games plus the postseason is the only thing in question
It takes a certain amount of gumption to pepper the zone, and no one will argue that Scherzer is short on confidence. Here's what he said in August, after a start against the Cubs:
«Strike one, locate it, get the ball where you want it,» Scherzer said, outlining his gameplan. «It's OK if they swing at it.»
Scherzer has adjusted his mix and changed his arm slot, too. His 48.5% usage rate on the four-seamer was his highest single-season mark since 2019.
By run value, it was his best pitch, at a +4. It has a different shape, with less horizontal movement than usual, because Scherzer's arm angle has crept up to 33 degrees.
Scherzer also threw his slider 23.7% of the time, tied for his highest single-season rate.
As Blue Jays manager John Schneider summarized in the ALCS: «He's 41 and he's still working on his craft.»
Do you think the Blue Jays should bring back Max Scherzer in 2026?
Have your say in the poll below.
| POLL | ||
DECEMBRE 24 | 174 ANSWERS Should the Toronto Blue Jays roll the dice on free agent Max Scherzer again? Do you think the Blue Jays should bring back Max Scherzer in 2026? | ||
| Yes | 112 | 64.4 % |
| No | 62 | 35.6 % |
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