Will the Toronto Blue Jays reunite with Alek Manoah in 2026?

On Friday, the Atlanta Braves non-tendered Manoah, allowing the 27-year-old to hit free agency.

Manoah has been working to get back on track this year, but it hasn't been an encouraging return.

He has thrown 38 2/3 innings in the minors this year, mostly on rehab but the Blue Jays also eventually reinstated him from the IL and then optioned him when Anthony Santander was reinstated from the IL.

His 3.96 ERA in those minor league innings isn't bad but his 19.6% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate are both poor.

He has only been averaging 91 miles per hour on his fastball, whereas he was around 94 mph in that great 2022 season.

In 2022, he made 31 starts for the Blue Jays, tossing 196 2/3 innings with a 2.24 earned run average.

That ERA was probably a bit misleading. Manoah's 6.5% walk rate was good but his 22.9% strikeout rate was only about average and his 37.5% ground ball rate was subpar.

He benefited from a .244 batting average on balls in play and 82.6% strand rate. Adjusted metrics like his 3.35 FIP and his 3.85 SIERA thought he was more good than great.

Regardless, Manoah finished third in American League Cy Young voting, behind Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease.

2025 was Manoah's first of three arbitration seasons and he is making $2.2MM.

Since he hasn't pitched in the big leagues this year, he should be in line to make the same salary next year.

It's a low price, low risk, high reward type situation if both sides are up to it.

A return hinges on whether there are ill feelings between the team and Manoah after his long run with the organization, which saw him reach the highest of highs and the lowest of lows.

Toronto has room to add Manoah. After the Blue Jays' own tender deadline moves they have 38 players on the 40-man roster.

The Blue Jays could sign him to a Major League deal at the minimum and give him another shot in 2026. It's just a matter of whether there's a desire to do so on both sides.