Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. closer than initially thought; deferred money a sticking point

Following up on Guerreros interview with ESPN last week, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal specified that Guerrero was a seeking a contract with a total net value of $500MM.

That could have taken a number of forms.

The one Guerrero was most amenable to was a straight $500MM deal, with no deferred money, over the course of 14 years. Averaged out, that's an AAV of $37.5MM/year. All of the sudden, we are in very reasonable territory.

Evidently, differed money was a sticking point.

The New York Post reported that Blue Jays offered a deal that was around $500MM but included differed money, bringing the Net Present Value (NPV) somewhere between $400-$450MM. Shi Davidi indicated that it was closer to the higher figure.

Either number would still represent the third highest contract in MLB History, behind Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto and would easily surpass the Blue Jays record of the six year, $150MM deal currently held by George Springer.

Although there won't be any negotiations during the regular season, this feels like a gap that will be able to be overcome by both sides.

The Blue Jays have gone up significantly from the alleged first offer of $340MM, while Guerrero came down off his original asking price.

Guerrero wants to be a Blue Jay. If the two sides can agree on a contract that is around $500MM or perhaps one with less years but with a greater NPV/AAV then that will be what it takes.

Everybody knows what the stakes are. In seven months, we'll see how everything plays out.