Which players will reject or accept their qualifying offers?
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Today is the deadline for players to decide whether to accept their qualifying offers.
Thirteen free agents were tagged with the $22.025 million offer. It's a formality for seven of the thirteen, who'll easily decline and command a much larger multi-year contract.
Out of the thirteen there are six players who will definitely reject their offers to hit the open market for multi-year deals.
Players like Bo Bichette, Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber, Edwin Diaz, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease and Ranger Suarez will almost certainly reject their qualifying offers. There's no scenario in which any of them accept it.
Most of the remaining six will decline as well, but there's at least a small chance for any of them to accept.
Players and their representatives have had the past two weeks to gauge early demand on the open market, and it's possible someone from the group has found sufficiently lukewarm interest to consider locking in the strong one-year deal and trying again next offseason.
Trent Grisham and Gleybor Torres were the two mid-level hitters who received the offer. Grisham is coming off a 34-homer season and is the top all-around center fielder on the market.
He'd hit below the Mendoza line in three straight seasons coming into 2025. Entering the year, the notion of him receiving a qualifying offer would've been laughable. Things can change quickly. Grisham Prediction: Accept QO
Torres was the most surprising recipient of a qualifying offer. He was a deserved All-Star behind an excellent first half but struggled down the stretch and underwent postseason sports hernia surgery. Torres Prediction: Accept QO
Zac Gallen and Michael King are each somewhat buy-low rotation options. Gallen is coming off a 4.83 earned run average across 33 starts. His strikeout rate has regressed in a few consecutive seasons, and he gave up the fourth-most home runs (31) of any pitcher in MLB. Gallen Prediction: Reject QO
King has been a much better pitcher than Gallen over the past two seasons. He missed most of his walk year battling a nerve issue in his shoulder.
He finished the year healthy but didn't pitch well in September. The Padres didn't trust him much going into the playoffs, though they're obviously confident enough in his health to make the QO. King Prediction: Reject QO
Brandon Woodruff has some parallels to King. He's a high-end starter whose main question is durability.
Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain after missing all of '24 recovering from shoulder surgery.
He was fantastic over 12 starts in between, though, and he's expected to be healthy going into 2026. Woodruff is entering his age-33 season. Woodruff Prediction: Reject QO
Shota Imanaga only hit free agency because the Cubs declined to trigger a three-year, $57.75MM option and he passed on the remaining two years and $30.5MM on his deal.
The Cubs weren't willing to make the three-year commitment but are evidently content to have him back for one season because they followed up by making the QO.
Perhaps they assumed he's a lock to decline after passing on the $30MM guarantee, though the QO represents an approximate $7MM raise over what he would've made in 2026 had he not opted out.
Imanaga was very good for most of his first two seasons in Chicago, but he became extremely homer-prone down the stretch and into the playoffs. Imanaga Prediction: Reject QO
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