Max Scherzer's underlying issues starting to show with the postseason on the horizon

For most of Max Scherzer's limited time as a Blue Jay, the thought was that as long as he stayed healthy, he'd be effective.

However, underlying issues are starting to emerge in the validity of that assumption.

The three-run shot that derailed his start on Monday may have been the result of pitching tipping more than anything else, but the long ball has dogged Scherzer all year.

Among the 169 pitchers who've logged at least 70 innings this season, his 1.94 HR/9 ranks sixth-highest.

Keeping the ball in the park has been a persistent issue in his late career. His 1.70 HR/9 since the beginning of the 2023 season is the third-highest among pitchers who've worked 250-plus innings.

The 41-year-old doesn't seem to be getting unlucky on home runs so much as the raw amount of flyballs he's allowing has made giving up at least one home run per start a statistical likelihood.

He's conceded at least one long ball in 11 of his 14 outings as a Blue Jay, and it's reached a point where his success often depends on how crowded the bases are when the near-invitable big fly happens.

To Scherzer's credit, his low walk rate helps ease the traffic, and his extreme flyball rate puts downward pressure on how many balls in play result in hits, but it's a dangerous way to be doing business.

There have been times this year when Scherzer looked like a sunk cost for the Blue Jays and others when he appeared to be a viable Game 1 playoff starter. Right now, neither one of those extreme characterizations fits.

As he gears up for his 15th start of the season against the Orioles, his ERA (4.36) is narrowly above league average for a starter (4.22), and his xERA (4.29) suggests that's approximately what he deserves.

That number probably undersells what he can do when he's feeling at his best physically, but it's also far from a given that he will be 100 per cent on any given day, considering his age and what he's been through in recent years.

There was a time this season when he looked like he might be Toronto's best starter on a per-inning basis, but Kevin Gausman's recent brilliance, the acquisition of Shane Bieber and Scherzer's home-run struggles have put that idea to rest.

Instead, the goal is to stabilize his performance enough to turn his presence in the playoff rotation from a likelihood into a certainty.

Source: Sportsnet