Should the Blue Jays take a flyer on Triston McKenzie?

McKenzie was moved to the Guards bullpen in spring training, but he posted an 11.12 ERA over his first four appearances this year. The right-hander hasn't appeared in a game since he allowed four runs in one inning on April 16 at Baltimore.

McKenzie missed significant time in 2023 with a UCL injury that never wound up requiring surgery. He struggled before and after a pair of lengthy IL stints that season and has yet to regain his footing.

He's also out of minor league options, so the Guards couldn't send him to Triple-A. McKenzie was one of a handful of notable out-of-options players we highlighted as a potential change-of-scenery candidate this spring.

Given his pre-injury track record, it seems likely that another club will take a chance on him, presumably via a minor trade but at the very least via waivers.

Back in 2022, a then-24-year-old McKenzie broke out with 191 1/3 innings of 2.96 ERA ball. He punched out 25.6% of his opponents against a terrific 5.9% walk rate.

That ostensible breakout came on the heels of a four-year run in which McKenzie ranked among the sport's top-100 prospects.

He didn't throw hard, sitting 92.5 mph with his four-seamer, but he generated swinging strikes and chases on pitches off the plate at rates well north of the average pitcher.

Given the right-hander's prospect status and Cleveland's penchant for churning out quality pitchers on a near-annual basis, McKenzie looked like the next in a long line of homegrown rotation arms to call Progressive Field home.

Can the Blue Jays help McKenzie regain his 2022 form?

He hasn't been the same pitcher since, however, as he had a 5.11 ERA in 2024 and posted an 11.12 ERA in 5 2/3 innings this year.

But context is crucial. He dealt with a UCL injury in 2023, which disrupted his rhythm and mechanics, as demonstrated here.

He had the option to undergo Tommy John surgery due to the injury, but instead elected for rest and rehab, which hasn't worked out so far.

Despite surface-level struggles, McKenzie's underlying metrics remain promising. His strikeout rates have been consistent, and his pitch movement and velocity show that the raw talent is still there. ​

The biggest thing is his pitch variety. Cleveland was using him in the bullpen this year (he'd been a starter every year in his career since) and 99 of the 124 pitches he's thrown this year have been fastballs.

He hasn't been able to command his off-speed stuff, which has led to him becoming reliant on that fastball.

And if hitters know it's coming...

The Guardians needed some fresh arms in their bullpen, which meant that McKenzie, who is out of options, was the odd man out.

He'd provide much needed depth in the rotation

Despite having proven veterans like Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays' rotation isn't perfect has its vulnerabilities.

Injuries and inconsistency have plagued the staff, and adding a pitcher with McKenzie's potential could provide much-needed stability. ​

The biggest thing they'd need to watch with McKenzie would be the health of his arm.

He says that's fully recovered from that UCL sprain, but also that he spent the first year of his return not using all of his stuff because he didn't trust the health of his arm.

The Blue Jays would need to make him feel comfortable enough that he could go out and spin it, while also being comfortable riding out some clunkers as he finds his footing. McKenzie is available now.

For a team looking to contend, this is the kind of low-risk, high-reward move that can pay dividends.

Toronto has Pete Walker and the support system to help him rediscover his 2022 form.​

A bit of this is out of Toronto's hands, however. The Guardians can trade McKenzie or place him on outright waivers at any point in the next four days.

Waivers themselves are a 48-hour process, meaning his DFA will be resolved within a week's time at most. He's earning $1.95MM this season.

An acquiring club would be on the hook for about $1.69MM as of this writing (or a bit less depending on when he's claimed/traded).

He's controllable for two additional seasons beyond the current campaign.

The Blue Jays will likely be one of numerous teams fighting for McKenzie's services, so they'd likely need to give up something in return to get him.

Money shouldn't be an issue since McKenzie's owed a little less that $1.7 million for the rest of the season.

McKenzie has the talent and drive to succeed, and the Blue Jays have the need and resources to support him.

This signing makes sense on every level.​ It's time for Toronto to act.