With Blue Jays' Guerrero Jr now locked up; Bo Bichette is next

Now that the organization has committed to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. as their franchise cornerstone, attention shifts to shortstop Bo Bichette, who faces free agency after the 2025 season.

The Blue Jays have demonstrated their willingness to spend, but questions remain about whether they have the same commitment to Bichette, and whether he wants to stay in Toronto.

The impact of the Vladdy deal on Bo Bichette could be more significant than initially apparent, given that Guerrero is widely considered the more valuable asset.

Since they're close friends, there's speculation that discussions about a potential extension for Bichette may have been part of Guerrero's negotiations in order to build a stronger core.

This megadeal also signals Toronto's willingness to lock down their homegrown talent, helping establish clear franchise faces for marketing and fan connection. Having already demonstrated financial commitment with Vladdy, securing Bichette would be the logical next step in building a young sustainable core with two leaders.

The relationship between Vladdy and Bichette extends back to their minor league days, with both players making their MLB debuts in 2019. The two infielders are really good friends too.

Bichette has established himself as one of baseball's premier offensive shortstops, earning two All-Star appearances. However, injuries hampered his 2024 performance. With Guerrero now secured long-term, Blue Jays fans are left wondering whether the team will make a similar commitment to Bichette or if the shortstop will seek opportunities elsewhere.

Bo Bichette is off to a solid start in 2025. The 27-year-old is hitting .310/.375/.379 through seven games, and he's already accumulated an fWAR total (0.3) that matches what he produced in his rough 2024 season.

Entering this season, the biggest question surrounding Bichette was whether he could rediscover the elite contact quality that made him such an offensive force from 2019 to 2023.

Because of his aggressive approach, Bichette's value at the plate will never come from walks. He needs to hit the ball with authority to survive.

Last season, we saw the result of his free-swinging approach combined with softer contact, and it was not impressive.

Seven games and 26 batted balls can't give us a concrete answer about whether the pop is back in Bichette's bat, but the early returns are strong.

The shortstop's average exit velocity (90.8 mph) is exactly at his career average, and his xwOBA on contact (.423) is above his excellent career mark (.412) and head-and-shoulders above what he did in 2024 (.347).

His overall xwOBA (.409) is well above his solid wOBA (.338), indicating that Statcast thinks he's been rather unlucky in the early going.

For example, this barrel liner in the opener came with an expected batting average of .550 and would've left four MLB ballparks.

Like many Blue Jays hitters, the 27-year-old enjoyed an excellent Grapefruit League campaign, slashing .373/.411/.667 with four home runs. Does that guarantee he's in for a massive 2025?

Absolutely not. Just over a year ago, George Springer hit .415/.510/.707 in the spring before enduring the worst offensive season of his career. The number of red herrings found in the Grapefruit League could sustain a thriving fishing industry.

With that qualifier noted, contact quality often says more about a hitter than his competition. Although Tyler Heineman deserves credit for his sturdy and unexpected home run on Sunday, he's probably never going to hit a 120 m.p.h. blast 470 feet to centre field, no matter how uninspiring the pitch he sees is. If he does, we need to re-evaluate who he is as a player immediately.

Bichette came into this season with questions about whether he can recapture his power stroke, and the spring provided some evidence that he can, specifically with a couple of his home runs. The two-time all-star hit blasts of 420 and 436 feet during the spring.

That's notable considering he only managed one long ball 420 feet or further in 81 games in 2024, and his 436-foot shot was longer than anything he's managed in the regular season since April 2023. This is just one swing, but it's the type of swing we didn't see last season.

While Bichette didn't provide any outlier exit velocity readings in the spring, his average was excellent (93.9 m.p.h.).

If we combine those spring results with his early-season numbers, Bichette has averaged 92.8 m.p.h. in his last 71 batted balls in game action.

That still isn't a large enough sample to start flying the 'Bo is Back' banner. During last year's lost season, he had a few stretches where his contact quality indicated there was some life in his bat. His season-high average exit velocity for a 50-batted-ball stretch was 94.8 mph, and for 75 batted balls it was 93.7 mph.

Bichette's bat speed is grading out similarly to 2024, and his hardest-hit ball to date (110.6 mph) does not exceed his highest from last year.

There is still a world where what he's done since the calendar turned to 2025 is a hot streak rather than an undeniable indicator that his power has been restored. That doesn't seem to be the most likely scenario, though.

Even though he has yet to clear the fence, the way that Bichette is hitting the ball now is reminiscent of his most successful years, and last year was a massive outlier to the rest of his career. The smart money was probably always on Bichette shaking off an ugly year and looking like himself again in his age-27 season.

As young as the current season is, that idea is already gaining some steam.